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Insights, research notes, and product updates from OptionMind.
本周SPY +0.37%守住$739但IWM -2.57%崩塌，能源XLE +5.65%独领，半导体闪崩MU -8.62%/AMD -7.91%吞没上周AI内存涨幅。质量股FlightToQuality+利率敏感三杀+加密同步Risk-Off，典型晚周期分化tape。
Rocket Lab surged 34% on May 8 — the largest single-day move in company history. Q1 revenue $200.3M (+63.5% YoY), backlog $2.2B (+108% YoY, doubled), GAAP gross margin 38.2% (record), Q2 guide $232.5M (+70% YoY, 10-15% above consensus). The market admitted three things at once: Neutron demand is signed (5 contracts including the largest deal in company history), vertical integration is producing margin (M&A flywheel intact), and RKLB has graduated from small-sat launcher to mission-critical national security infrastructure. Neutron maiden flight in Dec 2026 is the binary event. The only investable pure-play space alpha in public markets.
Rocket Lab 5/8 财报后单日 +34%，公司史上最大涨幅。Q1 营收 $200.3M（YoY +63.5%）、Backlog $2.2B（YoY +108% 翻倍）、GAAP 毛利率 38.2% 历史新高、Q2 指引 $232.5M（+70% YoY）超共识 10-15%。市场承认了三件事：Neutron 需求是签了合同的（5 单 + 史上最大）、垂直整合在产生毛利（M&A 四件套到位）、RKLB 已经是关键国安基础设施。Neutron 12 月首飞 = 二元事件。这是美股市场上唯一能买的纯太空 alpha。
特习峰会5月14-15日落幕。我们用45/40/15的剧本框架对照现实打分，标记板块判断里成功与失误的部分，并更新未来30天/90天/365天三个窗口的交易矩阵。
Trump-Xi concluded May 14-15. We score our 45/40/15 scenario call against reality, mark the sector calls that worked and missed, and update the trade matrix for the next 30/90/365 day windows.
Senate Banking Committee votes Thursday May 14 on the first U.S. crypto market structure bill — the first such committee vote in U.S. history. Three scenarios (60/25/15), Polymarket calibration (62% off the 75% high), what the 309-page bill actually says, why the real trade is Circle (CRCL), and the structure to play it.
参议院银行委员会5月14日周四就美国首部加密市场结构法案投票——美国历史上第一次。三种剧本（60/25/15）、用Polymarket校准（62%已从75%回落）、309页法案到底说了什么、为什么真正的交易是Circle（CRCL）、以及怎么搭仓位。
Six photonics names reported in nine days. All beat. Half sold off anyway. NVDA committed up to $3.2B to GLW; LITE joins the Nasdaq-100 on May 18; NOK raised optical guidance 800bps mid-cycle. The original 8-name framework is now 14 names across 6 tiers: GLW #1 (catalyst), LITE #2 (index inclusion), COHR #3 (highest quality), NOK #4 (structural value). Two whole tiers added: foundry (TSEM) and optical DSP (MRVL/CRDO/ALAB).
9 天里 6 家 photonics 公司公布业绩，全部超预期，半数照样大跌。NVDA 投 GLW $3.2B、LITE 加入 QQQ、NOK 把 Optical+IP 全年指引上调 800bps。原 8 名单的尺子换了——14 名 6 层重排：GLW #1（催化剂）、LITE #2（指数）、COHR #3（最高质量）、NOK #4（结构性价值）。漏掉的两层（foundry + 光 DSP）补上。
特朗普5月14-15日访华。三种剧本（45/40/15）、五大板块深度拆解、主交易矩阵，以及本周该做的三件事。
Trump visits Beijing May 14-15. Three scenarios (45/40/15), five deep sector dives, master trade matrix, and what to actually do this week.
AI内存超级周——MU +33.22%、AMD +26.33%财报双双历史级超预期，QQQ +5.42%创年内最强单周；FOMC按兵不动但4票反对（1992年来最多），UAE退出OPEC+引爆能源XLE -5.16%崩盘。
Five weeks ago I ranked 8 photonics companies. Last night, Mag-7 Q1 2026 raised combined 2026 capex to $695-725B. 7 of 8 names unchanged in ranking, 1 trimmed (LITE short-term), 2 internal weight tweaks — but conviction in every name went up.
5 周前我把光通信 8 家公司排了个序。昨晚 Mag-7 公布 Q1 2026 财报——$695-725B AI capex 全部上调。原排名 7 个不变、1 个调（LITE 短期下调）、2 个内部权重微调。但每一个名字的可信度都因昨晚而上升。
Mag7财报冰火两重天：GOOGL +11.48%（云业务+38% YoY）引爆，META -9.28%（Capex指引$1100-1200亿）暴跌；SPY +1.05%守稳$720，能源XLE +3.06%意外居首，下周5/7 FOMC定调降息节奏。
600K+ unfilled US manufacturing jobs. Reshoring without automation is impossible. The market either dismisses industrial automation as "mature, boring" or overpays for humanoid via Tesla. The real trade is the structural floor: ROK, ABB, ISRG already earning 20%+ operating margins. Full teardown of 10 robotics + automation stocks.
美国制造业60万+岗位空缺。回流没有自动化根本不可能。市场要么把工业自动化看作"无聊成熟"，要么因Tesla Optimus炒作把人形机器人定价过高。真正的交易是结构性底部：ROK、ABB、ISRG已经在20%+营业利润率赚钱。10只机器人+自动化股拆解。
A $50K drone destroying a $2M target. The Iran conflict validated drone-centric warfare economics: unit economics flipped. Market still values KTOS, AVAV by traditional defense models, but legacy primes literally cannot build $50K systems. Full teardown of 10 drone & autonomous systems stocks.
$50K无人机摧毁$2M目标。Iran战争验证无人机经济学：单位经济学翻转。市场仍按传统国防股给KTOS、AVAV估值，但legacy primes根本造不出$50K系统。10只无人机+自主系统股拆解：KTOS最高信念、AVAV战场验证最强、AXON DJI禁令受益。
5周前的HBM超级周期论点5周后复盘：11个监控触发器中9个明确打爆，大多数超出门槛3-4倍。微软Q3电话会披露约$25B capex来自'更高的内存价格'。三星内存利润同比+50倍。为什么我比5周前更紧张——10只股票的更新止损位与减仓建议。