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Day 37 of the Iran war: the strait didn't open or close — Iran turned Hormuz into a toll booth. Four scenarios, four trade setups, three key signals. Trading playbook v2, fully updated.
Defensive rotation dominates: XLE +6.29%/XLP +4.99%/XLI +4.82% sweep top 3. Tech earnings shock: AMZN -11.75% on $200B AI capex guidance, AMD -11.59%, META -7.44%. AAPL +6.96% sole Mag7 winner. Crypto crashes: BTC -8.25% briefly below $60K, SOL -13.17%. JOLTS at 5.25-year low signals labor market cooling.
A Davos moment reframed through Achilles: how Trump’s pressure-and-withdrawal tactics mirror Homer’s hero and what that means for markets, volatility, and capital flows.
Tech divergence intensifies with META +7.72% vs MSFT -7.53%. Communications and Energy lead sectors while Materials and Small Caps lag. Crypto weekend crash sees BTC -5.58% and ETH -9.26% with ~$1B liquidations. Next week focus: GOOGL/AMZN earnings and NFP data.