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Trump-Xi concluded May 14-15. We score our 45/40/15 scenario call against reality, mark the sector calls that worked and missed, and update the trade matrix for the next 30/90/365 day windows.
Trump visits Beijing May 14-15. Three scenarios (45/40/15), five deep sector dives, master trade matrix, and what to actually do this week.
600K+ unfilled US manufacturing jobs. Reshoring without automation is impossible. The market either dismisses industrial automation as "mature, boring" or overpays for humanoid via Tesla. The real trade is the structural floor: ROK, ABB, ISRG already earning 20%+ operating margins. Full teardown of 10 robotics + automation stocks.
A $50K drone destroying a $2M target. The Iran conflict validated drone-centric warfare economics: unit economics flipped. Market still values KTOS, AVAV by traditional defense models, but legacy primes literally cannot build $50K systems. Full teardown of 10 drone & autonomous systems stocks.
Five weeks after the original HBM supercycle thesis: 9 of 11 monitoring triggers fired bull, most by 3-4× the threshold. Microsoft attributed $25B of capex hike to memory inflation. Samsung memory profit +50× QoQ. Why I'm more nervous, not less — and updated stop-losses for all 10 stocks.
Five weeks after the bottom call: 9 of 10 stocks up +7% avg, FNV the only loser as predicted. The new story isn't gold price — it's the capital-return supercycle (NEM's $6B buyback, AEM's A- credit). Plus: silver's hidden demand crack and the trade for the next leg.
Every 1GW data center needs $1-2B in grid upgrades. Transformer lead times 3+ years, transmission permitting 10-15 years. AI + EVs + reshoring hitting a 1970s-era grid simultaneously. Full teardown of 10 grid infrastructure stocks: ETN quality king, PWR backlog visibility, CEG scarcest asset.
Day 37 of the Iran war: the strait didn't open or close — Iran turned Hormuz into a toll booth. Four scenarios, four trade setups, three key signals. Trading playbook v2, fully updated.
The Strait of Hormuz doesn't just ship oil — 15% of the world's urea and ammonia passes through it too. Full teardown of 10 agricultural stocks: CF Industries highest conviction, Mosaic best deep value, Corteva most defensive.