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Aggressive Risk-On: Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil crashes >10%. SPY +4.83% to $710 turns YTD positive. Tech XLK +8.45% leads with TSLA +14.44%, AMD +13.62% (20-year longest streak), MSFT +13.16%. BTC breaks 7-month downtrend to $77K.
Risk-On: Iran ceasefire hopes ignite V-shaped rally. SPY +2.46% snaps six-week losing streak. Tech XLK +3.60% leads, Energy XLE -6.15% collapses. META +7.10%, GOOGL +7.00% surge. NFP +178K blows past expectations.
Triple storm! WTI nears $100 + China trade retaliation + UMich consumer sentiment collapses to 53.3. SPY -3.64% to $634, 6th consecutive down week at 5-month low. Energy XLE surges +8.07%. META -13.22%, MU -16.17% crash. Nasdaq 100 enters correction. Trump Liberation Day tariffs 4/2 is the biggest risk.
FOMC hawkish shock! Inflation forecast raised to 2.7%, Powell refuses to rule out rate hikes. SPY -2.96% to $648, 5th straight down week at 4-month low. Only Energy XLE +2.68% positive. AMD +3.26% surges on Samsung HBM deal. MU blowout earnings but sell-the-news. SEC/CFTC classifies 16 tokens as digital commodities.
U.S.-Iran conflict pushes oil past $100. MU surges +17% on HBM supercycle. BTC rallies +7.56% as digital gold war hedge. SPY posts 4th straight weekly loss at $662.29. FOMC (3/17-18) is next week's critical event.
NFP collapsed -92K jobs, 15% global tariffs took effect, oil surged past $90. Only mega-cap tech (AMZN +4.23%, MSFT +4.10%) served as safe havens in a Quality Flight pattern. SPY -0.93%, IWM -2.68%, VIX surged to 28. Crypto decoupled with BTC +3.58%. CPI 3/11 and FOMC 3/17-18 loom large.
NVDA beat estimates by $2B and dropped -7.42%. New 15% global tariffs hit. PCE at 2.7%. Risk-Off rotation confirmed with defensives (XLU +2.71%, XLP +2.66%) dominating while tech and financials sold off. Full analysis, sector leaderboard, crypto, global markets, and March 4 tariff execution preview.
Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs 6-3, triggering V-shaped recovery. SPY +1.37%, QQQ +1.74% snaps 5-week losing streak. MU +6.79% on HBM demand, AMZN +6.05% on tariff relief. GDP 1.4% miss + Core PCE 3.0% raise stagflation concerns. NVDA earnings Feb 25 is the key event ahead.
Week in Focus: AAPL crashes -7.96% on Siri AI delays, XLU Utilities surge +7.22%, Financials tank -4.49%, CPI cools to 2.4%. All four major indices declined as defensive rotation reaches extreme levels.